Yesterday I put out a lengthy read on why I believe the Chicago Bears should give the keys to rookie quarterback Justin Fields on day one.
Trevor Lawrence will start week one for the Jaguars, as will Zach Wilson for the Jets.
Which rookie quarterback will see the field next? Mac Jones in New England could potentially beat out Cam Newton and start week one. Justin Fields should get the opportunity to beat out Andy Dalton and start week one in Chicago. Trey Lance isn’t expected to beat out Jimmy Garoppolo in San Francisco, yet I will not rule it out with how the 49ers offseason has gone thus far.
The next three rookie quarterbacks could all see the field early, or they could sit for several weeks or months depending on how things unfold.
Who will be the third rookie quarterback to see the field this season?
Give us your thoughts, predictions, and reasoning below!
Looking at things as black or white seems ridiculously short-sighted to me. Of course Lawrence and Wilson will start immediately simply because their teams don't have anybody else who offers any competition. As for the other 3 (Houston is irrelevant), I see them being given selected playing opportunities and the volume dependent upon their performance. Eventually Fields and Jones will take over sometime during the 2021 season, essentially when Dalton and Newton aren't getting it done. As for Lance, he'll play more in blowouts (there will be several) but I don't see him replacing Garoppolo as the starter UNLESS Jimmy gets injured once again. I expect the Niners to go deep into the playoffs and will continue to use split-time for QBs throughout. Then, Garoppolo gets traded next off-season and Lance takes over as the starter in 2022.
Hey Al! I think for the sake Corey's question of who will see the field, is meant to be more black or white because he's not necessarily asking who will start or who will succeed.
I do appreciate your predictions though! With that said I think we're all rooting for this polarizing class of QBs to be successful, including the Tier 2 guys like Mond, Mills, and Trask.
Just to touch on some of your points, I think the Niners and Bears are hard pressed to play Lance and Fields respectively, given what they gave up for them. The situation that intrigues me as far as split-time for QBs is Mac Jones/Cam Newton. When looking at what Sean Payton has done with Drew Brees/Taysom Hill these past few years, it would not be crazy if Bill did something similar. Cam was really hard to stop in that power run at the goal line, but obviously struggled between the twenties.
I think Fields and Lance have a good shot of starting week 1. I will take Lance first though for this prediction because first off, Nagy/Pace already have a history of trying to wait on starting their rookie QB (yes I understand there is a major talent gap between Trubisky and Fields) but it is still an argument to be made. Secondly, for Lance, he just sat out all of 2020 from the covid opt-out, so I can’t imagine Kyle Shannahan wants him going another year without playing. Lance needs live snaps, sooner rather than later.
Hey Trevor! I agree with all of this. I just wanted to add that I've mentioned before, that it would be hard to not play them given what they gave up to get them. They were big investments, so obviously don't play them if they're not ready, but the assumption is that they gave up as much believing they are.
I think it will be Justin Fields more so than Trey Lance, Jones, or Mills. Both have similarly talented QBs ahead of them (yes I think Jimmy G and Dalton are very similarly talented QBs, one is just more handsome and had better coaching). The difference to me for Fields and Lance is the last time Lance played a season of Football and the last time Fields did. I love Lance and think he will be a great QB over time, but think Fields is a more NFL ready QB who can beat out the current starter ahead of him faster. I don't think the Bears were great last year, but they were a playoff team 2 out of the last 3 years and have a lot of high end vets (Mack, Hicks, Arob etc) expecting to get back to the playoffs this year. If Fields comes in and is clearly the best starter day in and day out in practice and Nagy opts to have the worse player starting that can really hurt the positive team culture he's built. I expect Fields to start week 1 against the Rams or at worst week 4 at home against the Lions after we go 1-2 versus Rams, Cincinnati, and Browns. Could also see week 2 at home versus Cincinnati in what would be a fun Burrow V Fields home game. Something about Dalton on primetime Sunday night against the leagues best defense last year makes me think it won't go well. Again, I could also see Lance starting earlier on if SF struggles, not sure how many more seasons Kyle gets of 6 wins as a head coach.
Hey Tim! You make some good points here. An interesting thing to consider of the competition in the QB room under Coach Matt Nagy is that he is not afraid to switch out starting QBs, much like Coach Brian Flores in MIA, especially because the defense is solid (I don't like the Bears losing all pro CB Kyle Fuller though). Could the Bears platoon their QBs like a pitching rotation week in and week out? Sure, and they have. Is it smart? I hope no one on here believes so. But again, they have been in the playoffs 2/3 years with Trubisky back there, so in hindsight that has not been a huge problem, and yet Fields might just be the answer regardless.
Agreed, we saw Nagy's quick trigger last year when he pulled Mitch for Foles in the Bears comeback win versus Atlanta after a few bad throws despite the Bears winning record at the time. I think it is a little bit different situation here though in that once Nagy pulls Dalton it will be a lot harder to make the switch back. Flores dealt with it last year with Tua, but I'm not sure he handled it right. He benched Fitzpatrick because the calendar told him to rather than playing the best player at the position on his team. This cost the Dolphins a few games and the perception on Tua has been hurt a lot as well. I don't think Nagy will turn this into a platoon situation at all. Last year he turned to Foles because Mitch showed the same signs of being a bottom end player as he had the previous year and he felt Foles gave him the best chance to win. He moved back to Mitch after Foles struggled behind a lot of injuries on the Oline. Honestly I just believe in Fields, I think he may show even in training camp he is the best QB on the team day 1 and earn the starting spot with Dalton being the backup and Foles being inactive.
Agreed, and yes I am high on Fields as well and hope he succeeds. These situations (the Dolphins and Bears) are really interesting though, because I think they are platooning, unlike what Sean Payton did with Brees, Hill, and Winston situationally. There's the saying "you are what your record says you are". It is hard for me to criticize these handlings of QBs because again, the Bears were in the playoffs and the Dolphins were ten game winners that missed the playoffs, even with an additional spot. Again, I personally don't think it is a smart decision but I also don't think the moves have been as crazy as the media makes them sound when they occur.
But just in speculation of the Bears - is Dalton better than Trubisky? I think so. Is Fields? I think so too. I don't think going with either would be a "wrong" move. To touch on what you said about it being hard to go back to Dalton - I just think the Bears are more in win now mode as an organization than most think (or at least they should be) with the thought process that if Mitch can get us here, Dalton and/or Fields should be able to get us (here).
Throwing a rookie QB into the fire could end up in disaster ... if he fails badly, more likely than not, his confidence could be damaged for quite some time (witness Darnold). I fully expect Zach Wilson to get hammered because the Jets just don't offer him much help at this point. While I could be very wrong, I don't expect Fields' intro to the NFL to go that smoothly either ... he's got issues that will take time to correct, if they can be.
I feel like Davis Mills has a shot. Assuming Watson is unavailable for whatever reason, that team isn't going to be good enough to justify keeping him off the field and Tyrod Taylor on it.
What up, D! I don't want to rebuttal, because I ultimately do agree, but I just want to add a different perspective. To me, Watson's time is HOU is done regardless of the scandal's process, because he requested a trade literally weeks prior to this current situation - which leads us to the Mills pick. With the first of their few draft picks, they traded up to secure the QB they wanted - it might as well have been their Round 1 pick. It at least reads like the organization is prepared to move on from Deshaun as well.
With that said to your second point, the team not being good is yet to be seen. Duh, the season hasn't started yet - I know, but I mean roster wise between 2019 when they blew a 24pt lead over Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs to 2020 when they went 4-12, the main differences were the DeAndre Hopkins trade and the Bill O'Brien turnover. In other words, this roster does still have potential and even added some decent players to it. Optimistically if Mills is competitive and the team rallies around Coach David Culley, they could surprise this year. Not saying they'll be a winners - just saying surprise. I personally like the moves they've made outside of whatever caused a strain with Deshaun.
Fields will be the first to start but not week 1. Dalton will start first 5-6 games and then Fields will takeover regardless of how well Dalton or the Bears play. Jones will be the second rookie to start but it won’t be until the end of the season. Belichick is old school, like Reid. Mahomes didn’t start until week 14 or 15. Lance will not start a game for the 49ers but Shanahan will feature Lance in different plays during certain game. Jimmy will start every game for the 49ers, all the way through the playoffs, unless he suffers an injury. Fans will clamor for all 3 rookies to start, particularly if starting QBs have a rough outing. Smart head coaches will have a plan and communicate it to both QBs and tram so there no surprises.
There are a lot of many good points on here as to why (including my own), so I won't reiterate those here, but I encourage you to check them out. I'll just add some of my own suggestions:
If it were teams like the Bucs, Packers, Steelers, etc. - playoff teams with a legit QB1 who is up in age, that made the trade the Niners did moving up in the draft for a QB, then I understand it would make sense for that QB to sit. Literally any other team, where the QB isn't still in their first 5 years would be ASSUMED to have moved up for their franchise QB to start Day 1 like the Raiders, Rams, Saints, Vikings, etc. and yes, the Niners. I understand the arguments for Jimmy Garappolo and what Coach Kyle Shanahan has said, but take the move for what it was! That is a lot to give up just to stash a kid who plays the primary position of QB.
With that said, this is also a copycat league and in the way the Saints use multiple QBs situationally, or how the Dolphins seemingly run the hot hand, Shanahan could just as easily do the same in having two QBs he likes.
I believe Trey Lance will be starting fairly early. It’s not just that Jimmy Garoppolo is going to get hurt, it’s when Jimmy gets hurt. Last year, he sprains his ankle Week 2. In 2018, he tore his ACL Week 3. And in the 4 weeks he had to fill in for Tom Brady in 2016, he hurt his shoulder Week 2. It’s not just that Jimmy gets banged up a lot, he gets banged up early. So I believe Trey Lance will be starting by no later than Week 4-Week 5.
Jimmy has been beaten up repeatedly largely because of poor pass protection, not because he's injury prone. The Niners OL weakness was largely at the C and RG positions in 2020. They have substantially upgraded at both those positions during the off-season.
I believe that Lance will be given snaps in selected situations in most games during the upcoming season, many all of them; but, I don't expect him to start early in the season unless (1) the Niners get a trade offer for Garoppolo that they can't refuse, or (2) Garoppolo does get hurt once again.
Looking at things as black or white seems ridiculously short-sighted to me. Of course Lawrence and Wilson will start immediately simply because their teams don't have anybody else who offers any competition. As for the other 3 (Houston is irrelevant), I see them being given selected playing opportunities and the volume dependent upon their performance. Eventually Fields and Jones will take over sometime during the 2021 season, essentially when Dalton and Newton aren't getting it done. As for Lance, he'll play more in blowouts (there will be several) but I don't see him replacing Garoppolo as the starter UNLESS Jimmy gets injured once again. I expect the Niners to go deep into the playoffs and will continue to use split-time for QBs throughout. Then, Garoppolo gets traded next off-season and Lance takes over as the starter in 2022.
Hey Al! I think for the sake Corey's question of who will see the field, is meant to be more black or white because he's not necessarily asking who will start or who will succeed.
I do appreciate your predictions though! With that said I think we're all rooting for this polarizing class of QBs to be successful, including the Tier 2 guys like Mond, Mills, and Trask.
Just to touch on some of your points, I think the Niners and Bears are hard pressed to play Lance and Fields respectively, given what they gave up for them. The situation that intrigues me as far as split-time for QBs is Mac Jones/Cam Newton. When looking at what Sean Payton has done with Drew Brees/Taysom Hill these past few years, it would not be crazy if Bill did something similar. Cam was really hard to stop in that power run at the goal line, but obviously struggled between the twenties.
I think Fields and Lance have a good shot of starting week 1. I will take Lance first though for this prediction because first off, Nagy/Pace already have a history of trying to wait on starting their rookie QB (yes I understand there is a major talent gap between Trubisky and Fields) but it is still an argument to be made. Secondly, for Lance, he just sat out all of 2020 from the covid opt-out, so I can’t imagine Kyle Shannahan wants him going another year without playing. Lance needs live snaps, sooner rather than later.
Hey Trevor! I agree with all of this. I just wanted to add that I've mentioned before, that it would be hard to not play them given what they gave up to get them. They were big investments, so obviously don't play them if they're not ready, but the assumption is that they gave up as much believing they are.
I think it will be Justin Fields more so than Trey Lance, Jones, or Mills. Both have similarly talented QBs ahead of them (yes I think Jimmy G and Dalton are very similarly talented QBs, one is just more handsome and had better coaching). The difference to me for Fields and Lance is the last time Lance played a season of Football and the last time Fields did. I love Lance and think he will be a great QB over time, but think Fields is a more NFL ready QB who can beat out the current starter ahead of him faster. I don't think the Bears were great last year, but they were a playoff team 2 out of the last 3 years and have a lot of high end vets (Mack, Hicks, Arob etc) expecting to get back to the playoffs this year. If Fields comes in and is clearly the best starter day in and day out in practice and Nagy opts to have the worse player starting that can really hurt the positive team culture he's built. I expect Fields to start week 1 against the Rams or at worst week 4 at home against the Lions after we go 1-2 versus Rams, Cincinnati, and Browns. Could also see week 2 at home versus Cincinnati in what would be a fun Burrow V Fields home game. Something about Dalton on primetime Sunday night against the leagues best defense last year makes me think it won't go well. Again, I could also see Lance starting earlier on if SF struggles, not sure how many more seasons Kyle gets of 6 wins as a head coach.
Hey Tim! You make some good points here. An interesting thing to consider of the competition in the QB room under Coach Matt Nagy is that he is not afraid to switch out starting QBs, much like Coach Brian Flores in MIA, especially because the defense is solid (I don't like the Bears losing all pro CB Kyle Fuller though). Could the Bears platoon their QBs like a pitching rotation week in and week out? Sure, and they have. Is it smart? I hope no one on here believes so. But again, they have been in the playoffs 2/3 years with Trubisky back there, so in hindsight that has not been a huge problem, and yet Fields might just be the answer regardless.
Agreed, we saw Nagy's quick trigger last year when he pulled Mitch for Foles in the Bears comeback win versus Atlanta after a few bad throws despite the Bears winning record at the time. I think it is a little bit different situation here though in that once Nagy pulls Dalton it will be a lot harder to make the switch back. Flores dealt with it last year with Tua, but I'm not sure he handled it right. He benched Fitzpatrick because the calendar told him to rather than playing the best player at the position on his team. This cost the Dolphins a few games and the perception on Tua has been hurt a lot as well. I don't think Nagy will turn this into a platoon situation at all. Last year he turned to Foles because Mitch showed the same signs of being a bottom end player as he had the previous year and he felt Foles gave him the best chance to win. He moved back to Mitch after Foles struggled behind a lot of injuries on the Oline. Honestly I just believe in Fields, I think he may show even in training camp he is the best QB on the team day 1 and earn the starting spot with Dalton being the backup and Foles being inactive.
Agreed, and yes I am high on Fields as well and hope he succeeds. These situations (the Dolphins and Bears) are really interesting though, because I think they are platooning, unlike what Sean Payton did with Brees, Hill, and Winston situationally. There's the saying "you are what your record says you are". It is hard for me to criticize these handlings of QBs because again, the Bears were in the playoffs and the Dolphins were ten game winners that missed the playoffs, even with an additional spot. Again, I personally don't think it is a smart decision but I also don't think the moves have been as crazy as the media makes them sound when they occur.
But just in speculation of the Bears - is Dalton better than Trubisky? I think so. Is Fields? I think so too. I don't think going with either would be a "wrong" move. To touch on what you said about it being hard to go back to Dalton - I just think the Bears are more in win now mode as an organization than most think (or at least they should be) with the thought process that if Mitch can get us here, Dalton and/or Fields should be able to get us (here).
I think Fields will be the Bears' starter Week 1. It's relatively clear that Foles will be the 3rd QB, and this will be between Dalton and Fields.
Fields will have an upper hand on the physical part, and I think he'll come in and have a great grasp of Nagy's playbook immediately.
Dalton could be fine, but if Nagy sees that Fields is making progress, he should start as soon as possible.
I know most people will say that he shouldn't start Week 1 against the Rams, but why not throw him right into the fire if he's ready?
Throwing a rookie QB into the fire could end up in disaster ... if he fails badly, more likely than not, his confidence could be damaged for quite some time (witness Darnold). I fully expect Zach Wilson to get hammered because the Jets just don't offer him much help at this point. While I could be very wrong, I don't expect Fields' intro to the NFL to go that smoothly either ... he's got issues that will take time to correct, if they can be.
I agree with Ed. He made some valid points within comments.
I feel like Davis Mills has a shot. Assuming Watson is unavailable for whatever reason, that team isn't going to be good enough to justify keeping him off the field and Tyrod Taylor on it.
What up, D! I don't want to rebuttal, because I ultimately do agree, but I just want to add a different perspective. To me, Watson's time is HOU is done regardless of the scandal's process, because he requested a trade literally weeks prior to this current situation - which leads us to the Mills pick. With the first of their few draft picks, they traded up to secure the QB they wanted - it might as well have been their Round 1 pick. It at least reads like the organization is prepared to move on from Deshaun as well.
With that said to your second point, the team not being good is yet to be seen. Duh, the season hasn't started yet - I know, but I mean roster wise between 2019 when they blew a 24pt lead over Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs to 2020 when they went 4-12, the main differences were the DeAndre Hopkins trade and the Bill O'Brien turnover. In other words, this roster does still have potential and even added some decent players to it. Optimistically if Mills is competitive and the team rallies around Coach David Culley, they could surprise this year. Not saying they'll be a winners - just saying surprise. I personally like the moves they've made outside of whatever caused a strain with Deshaun.
Which rookie quarterback will see the field next?
Easy, Davis Mills.
Hey Federico! I agree, but I would love to hear your reasonings as to why.
Fields will be the first to start but not week 1. Dalton will start first 5-6 games and then Fields will takeover regardless of how well Dalton or the Bears play. Jones will be the second rookie to start but it won’t be until the end of the season. Belichick is old school, like Reid. Mahomes didn’t start until week 14 or 15. Lance will not start a game for the 49ers but Shanahan will feature Lance in different plays during certain game. Jimmy will start every game for the 49ers, all the way through the playoffs, unless he suffers an injury. Fans will clamor for all 3 rookies to start, particularly if starting QBs have a rough outing. Smart head coaches will have a plan and communicate it to both QBs and tram so there no surprises.
QB Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
There are a lot of many good points on here as to why (including my own), so I won't reiterate those here, but I encourage you to check them out. I'll just add some of my own suggestions:
If it were teams like the Bucs, Packers, Steelers, etc. - playoff teams with a legit QB1 who is up in age, that made the trade the Niners did moving up in the draft for a QB, then I understand it would make sense for that QB to sit. Literally any other team, where the QB isn't still in their first 5 years would be ASSUMED to have moved up for their franchise QB to start Day 1 like the Raiders, Rams, Saints, Vikings, etc. and yes, the Niners. I understand the arguments for Jimmy Garappolo and what Coach Kyle Shanahan has said, but take the move for what it was! That is a lot to give up just to stash a kid who plays the primary position of QB.
With that said, this is also a copycat league and in the way the Saints use multiple QBs situationally, or how the Dolphins seemingly run the hot hand, Shanahan could just as easily do the same in having two QBs he likes.
I believe Trey Lance will be starting fairly early. It’s not just that Jimmy Garoppolo is going to get hurt, it’s when Jimmy gets hurt. Last year, he sprains his ankle Week 2. In 2018, he tore his ACL Week 3. And in the 4 weeks he had to fill in for Tom Brady in 2016, he hurt his shoulder Week 2. It’s not just that Jimmy gets banged up a lot, he gets banged up early. So I believe Trey Lance will be starting by no later than Week 4-Week 5.
Jimmy has been beaten up repeatedly largely because of poor pass protection, not because he's injury prone. The Niners OL weakness was largely at the C and RG positions in 2020. They have substantially upgraded at both those positions during the off-season.
I believe that Lance will be given snaps in selected situations in most games during the upcoming season, many all of them; but, I don't expect him to start early in the season unless (1) the Niners get a trade offer for Garoppolo that they can't refuse, or (2) Garoppolo does get hurt once again.
Cam struggles early and they pull him for Mac Jones. I think Chi will genuinely give Dalton a shot for the first half of the season.