Yesterday I put out a lengthy read on why I believe the Chicago Bears should give the keys to rookie quarterback Justin Fields on day one.
Trevor Lawrence will start week one for the Jaguars, as will Zach Wilson for the Jets.
Which rookie quarterback will see the field next? Mac Jones in New England could potentially beat out Cam Newton and start week one. Justin Fields should get the opportunity to beat out Andy Dalton and start week one in Chicago. Trey Lance isn’t expected to beat out Jimmy Garoppolo in San Francisco, yet I will not rule it out with how the 49ers offseason has gone thus far.
The next three rookie quarterbacks could all see the field early, or they could sit for several weeks or months depending on how things unfold.
Who will be the third rookie quarterback to see the field this season?
Give us your thoughts, predictions, and reasoning below!
Looking at things as black or white seems ridiculously short-sighted to me. Of course Lawrence and Wilson will start immediately simply because their teams don't have anybody else who offers any competition. As for the other 3 (Houston is irrelevant), I see them being given selected playing opportunities and the volume dependent upon their performance. Eventually Fields and Jones will take over sometime during the 2021 season, essentially when Dalton and Newton aren't getting it done. As for Lance, he'll play more in blowouts (there will be several) but I don't see him replacing Garoppolo as the starter UNLESS Jimmy gets injured once again. I expect the Niners to go deep into the playoffs and will continue to use split-time for QBs throughout. Then, Garoppolo gets traded next off-season and Lance takes over as the starter in 2022.
I think Fields and Lance have a good shot of starting week 1. I will take Lance first though for this prediction because first off, Nagy/Pace already have a history of trying to wait on starting their rookie QB (yes I understand there is a major talent gap between Trubisky and Fields) but it is still an argument to be made. Secondly, for Lance, he just sat out all of 2020 from the covid opt-out, so I can’t imagine Kyle Shannahan wants him going another year without playing. Lance needs live snaps, sooner rather than later.
I think it will be Justin Fields more so than Trey Lance, Jones, or Mills. Both have similarly talented QBs ahead of them (yes I think Jimmy G and Dalton are very similarly talented QBs, one is just more handsome and had better coaching). The difference to me for Fields and Lance is the last time Lance played a season of Football and the last time Fields did. I love Lance and think he will be a great QB over time, but think Fields is a more NFL ready QB who can beat out the current starter ahead of him faster. I don't think the Bears were great last year, but they were a playoff team 2 out of the last 3 years and have a lot of high end vets (Mack, Hicks, Arob etc) expecting to get back to the playoffs this year. If Fields comes in and is clearly the best starter day in and day out in practice and Nagy opts to have the worse player starting that can really hurt the positive team culture he's built. I expect Fields to start week 1 against the Rams or at worst week 4 at home against the Lions after we go 1-2 versus Rams, Cincinnati, and Browns. Could also see week 2 at home versus Cincinnati in what would be a fun Burrow V Fields home game. Something about Dalton on primetime Sunday night against the leagues best defense last year makes me think it won't go well. Again, I could also see Lance starting earlier on if SF struggles, not sure how many more seasons Kyle gets of 6 wins as a head coach.
I feel like Davis Mills has a shot. Assuming Watson is unavailable for whatever reason, that team isn't going to be good enough to justify keeping him off the field and Tyrod Taylor on it.
Fields will be the first to start but not week 1. Dalton will start first 5-6 games and then Fields will takeover regardless of how well Dalton or the Bears play. Jones will be the second rookie to start but it won’t be until the end of the season. Belichick is old school, like Reid. Mahomes didn’t start until week 14 or 15. Lance will not start a game for the 49ers but Shanahan will feature Lance in different plays during certain game. Jimmy will start every game for the 49ers, all the way through the playoffs, unless he suffers an injury. Fans will clamor for all 3 rookies to start, particularly if starting QBs have a rough outing. Smart head coaches will have a plan and communicate it to both QBs and tram so there no surprises.
There are a lot of many good points on here as to why (including my own), so I won't reiterate those here, but I encourage you to check them out. I'll just add some of my own suggestions:
If it were teams like the Bucs, Packers, Steelers, etc. - playoff teams with a legit QB1 who is up in age, that made the trade the Niners did moving up in the draft for a QB, then I understand it would make sense for that QB to sit. Literally any other team, where the QB isn't still in their first 5 years would be ASSUMED to have moved up for their franchise QB to start Day 1 like the Raiders, Rams, Saints, Vikings, etc. and yes, the Niners. I understand the arguments for Jimmy Garappolo and what Coach Kyle Shanahan has said, but take the move for what it was! That is a lot to give up just to stash a kid who plays the primary position of QB.
With that said, this is also a copycat league and in the way the Saints use multiple QBs situationally, or how the Dolphins seemingly run the hot hand, Shanahan could just as easily do the same in having two QBs he likes.
I believe Trey Lance will be starting fairly early. It’s not just that Jimmy Garoppolo is going to get hurt, it’s when Jimmy gets hurt. Last year, he sprains his ankle Week 2. In 2018, he tore his ACL Week 3. And in the 4 weeks he had to fill in for Tom Brady in 2016, he hurt his shoulder Week 2. It’s not just that Jimmy gets banged up a lot, he gets banged up early. So I believe Trey Lance will be starting by no later than Week 4-Week 5.
Looking at things as black or white seems ridiculously short-sighted to me. Of course Lawrence and Wilson will start immediately simply because their teams don't have anybody else who offers any competition. As for the other 3 (Houston is irrelevant), I see them being given selected playing opportunities and the volume dependent upon their performance. Eventually Fields and Jones will take over sometime during the 2021 season, essentially when Dalton and Newton aren't getting it done. As for Lance, he'll play more in blowouts (there will be several) but I don't see him replacing Garoppolo as the starter UNLESS Jimmy gets injured once again. I expect the Niners to go deep into the playoffs and will continue to use split-time for QBs throughout. Then, Garoppolo gets traded next off-season and Lance takes over as the starter in 2022.
I think Fields and Lance have a good shot of starting week 1. I will take Lance first though for this prediction because first off, Nagy/Pace already have a history of trying to wait on starting their rookie QB (yes I understand there is a major talent gap between Trubisky and Fields) but it is still an argument to be made. Secondly, for Lance, he just sat out all of 2020 from the covid opt-out, so I can’t imagine Kyle Shannahan wants him going another year without playing. Lance needs live snaps, sooner rather than later.
I think it will be Justin Fields more so than Trey Lance, Jones, or Mills. Both have similarly talented QBs ahead of them (yes I think Jimmy G and Dalton are very similarly talented QBs, one is just more handsome and had better coaching). The difference to me for Fields and Lance is the last time Lance played a season of Football and the last time Fields did. I love Lance and think he will be a great QB over time, but think Fields is a more NFL ready QB who can beat out the current starter ahead of him faster. I don't think the Bears were great last year, but they were a playoff team 2 out of the last 3 years and have a lot of high end vets (Mack, Hicks, Arob etc) expecting to get back to the playoffs this year. If Fields comes in and is clearly the best starter day in and day out in practice and Nagy opts to have the worse player starting that can really hurt the positive team culture he's built. I expect Fields to start week 1 against the Rams or at worst week 4 at home against the Lions after we go 1-2 versus Rams, Cincinnati, and Browns. Could also see week 2 at home versus Cincinnati in what would be a fun Burrow V Fields home game. Something about Dalton on primetime Sunday night against the leagues best defense last year makes me think it won't go well. Again, I could also see Lance starting earlier on if SF struggles, not sure how many more seasons Kyle gets of 6 wins as a head coach.
I think Fields will be the Bears' starter Week 1. It's relatively clear that Foles will be the 3rd QB, and this will be between Dalton and Fields.
Fields will have an upper hand on the physical part, and I think he'll come in and have a great grasp of Nagy's playbook immediately.
Dalton could be fine, but if Nagy sees that Fields is making progress, he should start as soon as possible.
I know most people will say that he shouldn't start Week 1 against the Rams, but why not throw him right into the fire if he's ready?
I agree with Ed. He made some valid points within comments.
I feel like Davis Mills has a shot. Assuming Watson is unavailable for whatever reason, that team isn't going to be good enough to justify keeping him off the field and Tyrod Taylor on it.
Which rookie quarterback will see the field next?
Easy, Davis Mills.
Fields will be the first to start but not week 1. Dalton will start first 5-6 games and then Fields will takeover regardless of how well Dalton or the Bears play. Jones will be the second rookie to start but it won’t be until the end of the season. Belichick is old school, like Reid. Mahomes didn’t start until week 14 or 15. Lance will not start a game for the 49ers but Shanahan will feature Lance in different plays during certain game. Jimmy will start every game for the 49ers, all the way through the playoffs, unless he suffers an injury. Fans will clamor for all 3 rookies to start, particularly if starting QBs have a rough outing. Smart head coaches will have a plan and communicate it to both QBs and tram so there no surprises.
QB Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
There are a lot of many good points on here as to why (including my own), so I won't reiterate those here, but I encourage you to check them out. I'll just add some of my own suggestions:
If it were teams like the Bucs, Packers, Steelers, etc. - playoff teams with a legit QB1 who is up in age, that made the trade the Niners did moving up in the draft for a QB, then I understand it would make sense for that QB to sit. Literally any other team, where the QB isn't still in their first 5 years would be ASSUMED to have moved up for their franchise QB to start Day 1 like the Raiders, Rams, Saints, Vikings, etc. and yes, the Niners. I understand the arguments for Jimmy Garappolo and what Coach Kyle Shanahan has said, but take the move for what it was! That is a lot to give up just to stash a kid who plays the primary position of QB.
With that said, this is also a copycat league and in the way the Saints use multiple QBs situationally, or how the Dolphins seemingly run the hot hand, Shanahan could just as easily do the same in having two QBs he likes.
I believe Trey Lance will be starting fairly early. It’s not just that Jimmy Garoppolo is going to get hurt, it’s when Jimmy gets hurt. Last year, he sprains his ankle Week 2. In 2018, he tore his ACL Week 3. And in the 4 weeks he had to fill in for Tom Brady in 2016, he hurt his shoulder Week 2. It’s not just that Jimmy gets banged up a lot, he gets banged up early. So I believe Trey Lance will be starting by no later than Week 4-Week 5.
Cam struggles early and they pull him for Mac Jones. I think Chi will genuinely give Dalton a shot for the first half of the season.