The Letdown Lineup: Why the 2026 NFL Draft Class Has Fallen Flat So Far
As the 2025 college football season barrels toward its midpoint, the hype machine for the 2026 NFL Draft has sputtered to a halt. What was billed as a deep, quarterback-rich class—poised to deliver multiple first-round signal-callers and blue-chip talents across the board—has instead delivered a string of head-scratching performances, injuries, and outright bust signals.
Scouts and analysts entered September expecting fireworks from pedigreed names like Arch Manning and Cade Klubnik, only to witness fumbles, interceptions, and a collective failure to separate from the pack.
With just five weeks of tape in the books, the narrative has shifted from “wait for the boom” to “beware the bust.”This isn’t hyperbole. The quarterback position, once touted as a strength with six or seven Round 1 hopefuls, has been labeled “disappointing” by ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr., who noted the class’s inability to live up to preseason buzz.
Scouts we’ve spoken to have echoed the sentiment, highlighting how early returns have tabled any conversations about top picks for prospects who looked like franchise saviors just months ago.
Other scouts have zeroed in on the struggling QBs dragging down the overall evaluation, with one calling Clemson’s Klubnik the “most disappointing” name in the group.
As teams like the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets eye their multiple first-rounders, the question looms: Has this class been overhyped, or is there still time for redemption?
Spoiler: The tape says the former.
Quarterbacks: From Heirs Apparent to Holdovers
The quarterback carousel was supposed to spin wildly in 2026, with Arch Manning’s star power and a bevy of dual-threat arms ready to challenge the 2025 class’s dominance. Instead, the position has become a cautionary tale of unmet potential. Texas’ Arch Manning, the nephew of Peyton and Eli, entered the year as a projected No. 1 overall pick, his arm strength and mobility evoking memories of his uncles’ cerebral precision. But through five starts, Manning’s accuracy has faltered—clocking in at under 60% completions with four touchdowns against three picks—prompting our team to tumble him down his QB rankings entirely.
Clemson’s Cade Klubnik fares no better. Preseason mocks had him as a top-10 lock, his poise under pressure drawing Bo Nix comps. Yet, Klubnik’s 2025 has been marred by turnovers and inefficiency, leading many scouts to call him the most misunderstood prospect when looking at media grades versus NFL scouting reports.
His Tigers sit at 2-3, and while he’s eclipsed 1,000 passing yards, the eye test reveals a gunslinger forcing throws into traffic, echoing the bust risks that plagued similar profiles in past drafts.Penn State’s Drew Allar adds to the malaise. Hyped as a top-5 arm with prototypical size (6’5”, 240 lbs), Allar has managed just four touchdowns in blowout wins against overmatched foes, failing to dazzle against stiffer competition. ESPN’s draft notebook questions his stock outright: “He needs to become a great college quarterback before he can become a great NFL quarterback, and he hasn’t gotten there yet.”
South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, another preseason darling, has sputtered with inconsistent reads, but scouts are at least enamored with his tools and potential.
The result? A QB class now projected for just three Day 1 selections, per scouts we’ve polled, a far cry from the six or seven floated in August.
These struggles aren’t isolated; they’re symptomatic of a class lacking the polish to match its pedigree. As one AFC scout told ESPN, “The potential is here... but one full year as a CFB starter isn’t going to be enough.”
For teams desperate for a franchise guy, the panic is setting in.
Skill Positions: Flashes Amid the Fade
The receiving corps and backfield were supposed to provide balance, with explosive playmakers like Ohio State’s Carnell Tate and Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love anchoring a dynamic group. Tate, a top-50 lock entering the year, has shown bursts—three 100-yard games—but his route-running inconsistencies have scouts questioning his separation against man coverage.
Love, the consensus RB1, has hit 1,000 rushing yards but fumbled twice in key spots, raising red flags about ball security in a class already thin on workhorse backs.
Even risers like Arizona State’s Jordyn Tyson can’t mask the broader disappointment. While he’s climbed into WR1 talks with crisp routes and YAC ability, the overall wideout pool lacks the alpha separators of recent vintages.
Dynasty Nerds’ early boards highlight the depth issue: “We have 0 high-end trajectories at the QB and WR positions for 2026. Zero.”
Running back Nicholas Singleton’s return from the 2025 portal was meant to solidify the spot, but his 4.2 yards per carry average has him slipping behind unheralded transfers like USC’s Waymond Jordan.
The Defensive Disparity: Lights Out on One Side
If offense is faltering, defense offers a mixed bag—but even here, the “supposed top prospects” have underwhelmed. Ohio State’s Caleb Downs, the preseason No. 1 overall per Dane Brugler’s rankings, has been solid (two INTs, 45 tackles) but exposed in man coverage, with scouts whispering “weakside linebacker” conversions.
Miami’s Rueben Bain Jr. shines as a pass-rusher (7 tackles, 10 pressures in Week 4), but his run defense lapses have tempered top-10 hype.
The real gut punch comes from falling stars.
TCU’s Tre’vez Johnson-Nwokobia, a projected Day 2 corner, sits at a sub-60 PFF grade with just one pick, his coverage snaps yielding big plays in losses to Baylor and TCU.
NFL Draft Countdown’s Brian Lamb laments: “Prospects can have a solid performance... but despite their efforts, are falling down the 2026 NFL Draft board.”
Trench Warfare: Where the Class Still Holds
Amid the offensive malaise, the trenches provide a lifeline. Alabama’s Kadyn Proctor remains a blindside protector extraordinaire, his anchor against power rushes earning OT1 nods despite whispers of effort lapses.
Utah’s Spencer Fano and Caleb Lomu form a tackle duo that’s loaded, with Fano’s sticky blocking projecting to guard or right tackle.
On defense, Florida’s Caleb Banks has surged with disruptive interior work, mocking as a Cowboys replacement for bust Mazi Smith.
Yet even here, risks abound. Proctor’s “bad tape” and attitude rumors have him “dropping like a rock,” per the latest draft chatter, underscoring the class’s volatility.
The Bigger Bust Picture: A Class in Crisis?
Is the 2026 draft class the weakest in recent memory?
With no tier-1 QBs emerging and skill talent thinning, the answer leans yes. Scouts warn of a muddy class full of “boom or bust” profiles, while the class is full of prospects who need to go back to school for more seasoning.
For NFL GMs, this means trading down or banking on risers like Oregon’s Dante Moore, who’s ascended to Heisman favorite status with poise beyond his years.
But hope flickers. There’s plenty of season left for prospects to sway minds.
A hot streak from Manning or Klubnik could reignite the fire. Until then, this class serves as a humbling reminder:
Hype is cheap; tape is truth. In a league built on second chances, 2026’s top prospects have theirs—but the clock is ticking.