Scouting Notebook Sneak Peek: 49ers Desparate; QB Carousel Mock Draft; and more!
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The San Francisco 49ers were one throw away from a Super Bowl victory after the 2019 season.
Or so the myth would have you believe that Jimmy Garoppolo’s overthrow of Emmanuel Sanders cost the Niners their sixth Super Bowl title. And even if it was Robert Saleh’s defense that folded in the second half, 49ers fans and much of the media has taken to pointing the finger at Garoppolo after a post-season run that saw head coach Kyle Shanahan largely eliminate the quarterback from the offense.
“If Shanahan doesn’t trust him, why should we?” became a common complaint from Niners fans.
It didn’t help that in the follow-up to the uninspiring 2019 postseason that Garoppolo would once again struggle on the field and once again miss time due to injury in 2020 as the 49ers won just six games—but still too many to be in comfortable position to draft a quarterback in Round 1.
And now general manager John Lynch must do something he hasn’t been very good at—identify, evaluate and value draft prospects.
That might seem harsh considering the 49ers were in the Super Bowl just 15 months ago, but let’s look line-by-line at where this team stands.
1. The 49ers are 29-35 in the regular season under Lynch and Shanahan.
2. The 49ers are an aging team with nine starters and 26 total players set to hit free agency.
3. Under Lynch, the 49ers have yet to draft a first-rounder that is a blue chip building block on the roster (Solomon Thomas, Reuben Foster, Mike McGlinchey, Nick Bosa, Javon Kinlaw, Brandon Aiyuk).
And before you say Nick Bosa, it’s way too early to consider him a true building block given his injury history in college and that he missed all but two games in 2020 due to injury. Bosa looked very good in 2019, but he was also playing next to an All-Pro in DeForest Buckner (whom Lynch traded away).
The ceiling on Bosa is very high, but nine sacks so far doesn’t make him a blue chip building block. If he can stay healthy in 2021, it’s a different conversation.
4. Bypassed Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson in the 2017 NFL draft to select Solomon Thomas; then traded for Jimmy Garoppolo and immediately paid him $137.5 million over five years only to see him continue to struggle with turnovers, injuries and timid play.
In the draft, Lynch has yet to hit on the Round 1 foundation pieces.
In identifying a quarterback of the future, Lynch missed when choosing Garoppolo.
And in free agency, Lynch has a roster set to be cut in half with only $23 million (projected) available in cap space.
Two years ago the 49ers looked like an NFC powerhouse in the making. Now they might be the fourth best team in the division. Meanwhile, owner Jed York handed Lynch a contract extension that keeps him in place until after the 2024 season.
One season with 13 wins and three others with less than six and Lynch has among the best job security in the NFL.
But make no mistake, 2021 is a must-win year for Lynch. Another losing season likely wouldn’t result in the 49ers moving on from Lynch, but it would dim the shine on his resume that is somehow not receiving the scrutiny it deserves.
Niners fans will be upset about this posting, but they should expect more from their front office. Hitting on George Kittle (Round 5) and Fred Warner (Round 3) doesn’t change the poor team-building efforts here.
That starts by properly identifying the replacement at quarterback. Drafting at No. 12 overall means it’s very unlikely that any of the top five passers—Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance or Mac Jones—will be available without a trade up in the round.
The 49ers’ options are:
1. Trade away major resources for Deshaun Watson.
2. Trade away slightly less resources to jump up in the draft order to select a quarterback.
3. Roll with Garoppolo in ‘21.
The pressure is on Lynch—and Shanahan—to make the right decision. Even if that means admitting they were wrong on Garoppolo and cutting him while he only costs $2.8 million against the cap.
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