Mock drafts are a lot of fun to build because once you finalize one and publish it – a massive trade happens that forces you to start from the beginning. This particular mock draft is 100% what I think will happen. So no, my guy Dyami Brown is not the fourth wide receiver drafted, unfortunately.
And also no, my guy Trey Lance is not drafted second overall by the New York Jets.
Before Bill Belichick trades up and ruins this entire mock draft…
Let’s dive right in.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars – QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
The city of Jacksonville has already begun welcoming Trevor Lawrence and his new wife as one of their own.
2. New York Jets – QB Zach Wilson, BYU
Zach Wilson has always been the pick here.
3. San Francisco 49ers (from Miami) – QB Mac Jones, Alabama
Since trading up to No. 3 overall, it’s been a wild ride for 49ers fans (sorry Matt). Regardless of who the pick is here, Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch better hope they hit on their guy.
If they don’t, I’d recommend they start updating their resumes.
It won’t be a well-liked decision, but Mac Jones will be a 49er.
4. Atlanta Falcons – TE Kyle Pitts, Florida
Atlanta has a few different options with the fourth overall draft selection.
1. Trade down for future draft collateral
2. Draft the quarterback of the future
3. Draft the best non-quarterback in this draft class
As I’m writing this, I still believe that Atlanta stays put and selects the ‘unicorn’ of this draft class, tight end Kyle Pitts out of Florida. As we all know, things move quickly and in a lot of ways, the Falcons control the draft here at No. 4
5. Cincinnati Bengals – WR Ja’Marr Chase, LSU
Teams go decades searching for a franchise quarterback, and recent history will suggest that keeping that guy happy is utterly important. Joe Burrow wants to throw touchdowns to his former teammate and pal, Ja’Marr Chase.
The Bengals will deliver on Joe Burrow’s wish.
6. Miami Dolphins (from Philadelphia) – OT Penei Sewell, Oregon
The Dolphins traded down then traded back up and some are suggesting that if Chase and Pitts are gone here, they could trade back down. I’m not buying it.
History has shown that providing a young QB more time in the pocket is a successful method of developing a quarterback. Give Tua Tagovailoa the best offensive tackle in this class and help him develop in his second year.
7. Detroit Lions – OT Rashawn Slater, Northwestern
What better way to start a roster rebuild than with an elite offensive tackle. Slater would fit the Detroit mold and give them a bright spot to build around.
8. Carolina Panthers – CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama
After trading for Sam Darnold, the Panthers appear to have a few options here. Ultimately, drafting the cleanest, safest defensive prospect in this entire class could be a nice pick for new GM Scott Fitterer.
9. TRADE: Las Vegas Raiders (from Denver Broncos) – QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State
Every year there seems to be a surprise team moving up. This year, I think it could be the Vegas Raiders in pursuit of a ‘Gruden Grinder’ at quarterback for head coach Jon Gruden.
Trey Lance seems to be a smart player who understands what it takes to be successful. If Lance is a true grinder, then Gruden could quietly be in on the North Dakota State quarterback.
If he is, this move makes sense.
10. TRADE: New England Patriots (from Dallas Cowboys) – QB Justin Fields, Ohio State
Predicting Justin Fields’ future team has been one of the biggest mysteries of this entire draft process. Some people say third overall, some say 32nd overall.
It might be all smoke, but I can’t remember the last time a player of Fields caliber was talked about so negatively prior to the draft. If you recall, there was a similar feel during the 2005 NFL Draft; when a quarterback by the name of Aaron Rodgers slid down the board in a shocking manner that not many had expected months earlier. Rodgers was pegged as a top-five draft pick for a few months, until he wasn’t. Quietly, there were teams that had questions about Rodgers, and twitter wasn’t around for all of us to hear those questions.
Bill Belichick keeps information very tight in Foxborough. Unless he doesn’t believe it’ll effect his team in the long-term.
I think Bill Belichick has liked Fields for a long time.
He just never envisioned he’d have a realistic chance of landing him.
11. New York Giants – EDGE Kwity Paye, Michigan
GM Dave Gettlemen has shown in the past that he doesn’t care what our mock drafts say. Wide receivers and linebackers have been floated for the Giants here at No. 11, yet Kwity Paye may be a guy that they’re higher on that most of us believe.
12. Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami via San Francisco) – CB Jaycee Horn, South Carolina
Eagles’ GM Howie Roseman traded back from No. 6 overall assuming he would miss out on the top tier wide receivers in this class. There could be a reason for that move, wide receiver depth in the class, team needs, draft collateral, etc.
Jaycee Horn would instantly become a difference maker on the Eagles defense, and I don’t see them passing up on him here at No. 12 overall.
13. TRADE: Arizona Cardinals (from Los Angeles Chargers – WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama
Arizona doesn’t have a lot of draft capital this year, and they have needs at cornerback, and offensive line. They also did not expect Waddle to be available at No. 13 here.
Trading up three spots at this point in round one isn’t difficult, especially for a player of Waddle’s talent.
14. TRADE: Miami Dolphins (from Minnesota Vikings) — WR DeVonta Smith, Alabama
The top three wide receivers in this class could certainly all go top-ten. History suggests that one, maybe two, will slide past that mark. Miami drafted Penei Sewell sixth overall with the intention of drafting a wide receiver at No. 18, or in round two.
Miami landing Penei Sewell and Devonta Smith in the first round would be a massive stunner and lead to some fun conversations.
15. Dallas Cowboys (from New England Patriots) – LB Zaven Collins, Tulsa
After trading back, Jerry Jones knew he wasn’t going to land one of the top two corners are No. 15 here. He traded back hoping he would land the top ranked linebacker, in his eyes. Collins is a big-bodied athletic linebacker who can do a lot of things for a defense.
16. Los Angeles Chargers (from Arizona Cardinals) – OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech
Chargers could definitely move up or down for offensive line help. If the board falls their way, they could field trade offers, move down, and draft an offensive tackle that many believe could be a future all-pro in the making. Protecting their franchise QB in Justin Herbert is priority number one and Darrisaw is a nice start.
17. Denver Broncos (from Las Vegas Raiders) – LB Micah Parsons, Penn State
Denver traded for Teddy Bridgewater to give Drew Lock some veteran competition. Trading back to acquire more assets and then proceeding to draft linebacker Micah Parsons would be a nice day one for new GM George Paton.
18. Minnesota Vikings (from Miami Dolphins) – IOL Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC
Minnesota needs help all across their offensive line. They still believe they have a competitive roster with Dalvin Cook, Kirk Cousins, and Justin Jefferson. Bolster the offensive line with Vera-Tucker and hope you can put a great season together.
19. Washington Football Team – LB/S Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah can line up anywhere from strong safety to stack linebacker. He has the power, speed, football IQ, and leadership to make a big impact on a team right away. Ron Rivera would love the versatility he could provide to this young defense.
20. Chicago Bears – WR Elijah Moore, Ole Miss
Chicago seems to believe they have a competitive roster. Star wide receiver Allen Robinson was franchise tagged and has basically said publicly he doesn’t want to be there.
Let’s draft a weapon for whoever the Bears draft in the top-five next year.
21. Indianapolis Colts – EDGE Gregory Rousseau, Miami
Rousseau is a raw physically gifted talent who could become a star edge rusher at the NFL level. He doesn’t have a ton of playing experience which has teams hesitant, but I think Chris Ballard and the Colts could take a gamble here on a player who fits a need with tremendous upside.
22. Tennessee Titans – EDGE Jaelan Phillips, Miami
Back-to-back Miami edge rushers come off the board here. Medical concerns are real with Phillips, but the Titans see the ceiling and take the leap of faith here.
23. New York Jets – OT Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State
After drafting Zach Wilson with the second overall pick, how about we improve the offensive line to give Wilson a shot at having a great start to his young career. Hopefully, the Jets have learned what happens when you don’t surround your highly drafted quarterback with talent and protection.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers – RB Travis Etienne, Clemson
I’ll be honest here with a full understanding that I’ll be scrutinized for it – I think Travis Etienne fits the mold of what Pittsburgh likes to do with their running backs. I will probably be wrong, but I don’t believe Najee Harris is RB1 for every team.
25. Jacksonville (from LA Rams) – S, Trevon Moehrig, TCU
Urban Meyer will gladly select the best safety in this draft class here at No. 25. Jaguars need talent with play making ability on defense – Moehrig fits that mold
26. Cleveland Browns – LB Jamin Davis, Kentucky
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cleveland explore a receiver here, but Jamin Davis comes with a enormous upside and can help progress an already improving defense.
27. Baltimore Ravens – WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota
Baltimore has their eyes on Rashod Bateman out of Minnesota and Terrace Marshall Jr out of LSU. Medical concerns around one of these players (Marshall) could make this decision easier for the Ravens.
Give Lamar Jackson a weapon that can beat coverage and make things happen after the catch.
28. New Orleans Saints – CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech
The slide for Caleb Farley ends at New Orleans. If Caleb Farley can stay healthy, five years from now we could look back and wonder how and why he slid this far. The medical concerns are very real, but Sean Payton is willing to take the high-risk high reward approach here.
29. Green Bay Packers – WR Kadarius Toney, Florida
If Green Bay is serious about keeping Rodgers happy, this will be the pick. The Packers don’t have as many holes as some believe, and Toney is a threat to score whenever the football touches his hands. Kadarius Toney lining up alongside Davante Adams would help Rodgers win his fourth league MVP.
30. Buffalo Bills – CB Greg Newsome II, Northwestern
Buffalo GM Brandon Beane has done an excellent job leading up to draft night. You can make the argument that the Bills can take a true best player available approach here at No. 30 overall. Greg Newsome II is a cornerback with elite upside and Buffalo would be overjoyed to start him opposite Tre'Davious White.
31. Baltimore Ravens (from Kansas City Cheifs) – IOL, Landon Dickerson, Alabama
Medicals aside, Landon Dickerson fills a huge need for the Ravens. After trading Orlando Brown to KC, Baltimore can use the pick acquired to help strengthen their offensive line. Drafting Rashod Bateman and Landon Dickerson in the first round would be a nice haul for Baltimore; and for Lamar Jackson.
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – EDGE Carlos Basham Jr., Wake Forest
The rich get richer, and the greats continue being great. Tampa Bay has fully accepted the ‘Brady Effect’ as they’ve successfully brought back all 22 Super Bowl starters.
Carlos Basham Jr. is an overlooked edge rusher in this class that could give the Buccaneers defense more firepower to attack the opposing quarterback.
I don't know if Toney will ever be able to learn how to run proper routes to be where Rodgers expects him to be. Therefore I really hope that the Packers will draft Bateman.
If Chargers can trade down and still get Darrisaw I would be extremely happy. But holy trade craziness.